NFL Week 12 Bettors Guide: Ride under with sorry New York offenses

<u>THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET</u>

JETS at TEXANS

1 p.m., Texans by 3, 44 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: This may be hard to believe, but the Jets are the better team and the Texans are favored for the first time all year. Even with Tyrod Taylor back at QB, the Texans are still offensively challenged, totaling under 200 yards of total offense in their upset last week. As bad as the Jets defense is, it should at least hold its own. After watching two other quarterbacks play ahead of him, Zach Wilson should be sufficiently motivated to take advantage of a soft secondary in his chance to prove himself. Houston is caught between divisional games here with the Colts on deck, making it a tough spot for the home favorite.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jets and the under.

EAGLES at GIANTS

1 p.m., Eagles by 3 ½, 46 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: The Giants continue to wallow in their own sub-mediocrity while the Eagles, now that Nick Sirianni is emphasizing the running game, are playing their best football of the year. Big Blue’s offensive woes aren’t going to be fixed in one week by canning Jason Garrett; Philly still has a big advantage where it matters — in the trenches. And Freddie Kitchens calling plays? Remember his Browns offense? It’s going to take a big effort from the Giants’ defense to keep this one close and we all saw how much they miss Logan Ryan. Not crazy about the hook but we’ll go with the only one of these teams that still has playoff hopes.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.

BUCS at COLTS

1 p.m., Bucs by 2 ½, 52

HANK’S HONEYS: The Colts’ entire offense revolves around handing the ball to Jonathan Taylor, which worked fabulously in Buffalo last week. But this is a very good run defense that will be getting back its best run stopper in Vita Vea. That boils down this game to Carson Wentz against Tom Brady and in that situation, there is no case to be made for the Colts. We will admit that Tampa Bay has been terrible road team this season with a 0-5 ATS record but that has to stop somewhere. With the spread under a field goal, that spot is here.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the over.

BROWNS at RAVENS

8:20 p.m., Ravens by 4, 45 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Although we are wary about giving more than a FG in a huge divisional game, we’re fading the Browns. So highly touted before the season began, they are falling back to their historically dysfunctional ways and underachieving again. Baker Mayfield is banged up and frustrated, not a good combination against a pass rush that can swarm him. Cleveland’s offense has failed to surpass 17 points in five of the last six games and the exception came against the Bengals in a win greatly aided by turnovers. Lamar Jackson is expected to be back, although his health is still an issue. With question marks surrounding both QBs, we’re heavy on the under.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the under.

RAMS at PACKERS

4:25 p.m., Packers by 1, 47 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Sean McVay’s 4-1 ATS record following the bye is to be respected, but this is not an ideal bounce-back spot against the Packers at frosty Lambeau Field. Green Bay’s defense has allowed just 11 points per game at home and this Rams offense has issues. Their running game has failed them lately and with their O-line susceptible to pressure up the middle, the Packers can get after old friend Matthew Stafford (3-7 straight up as a Lion in Green Bay). After opening the season with impressive wins against the Colts and Bucs, the Rams are 0-3 SU and ATS against teams .500 and better. Aaron Rodgers may be hobbled but we look for him to gut it out in this one, not needing that many points for a W.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the under.

FALCONS at JAGUARS

1 p.m., Falcons by 1, 46 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Trevor Lawrence hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in three games. In what is usually a trademark of bad teams, the Jaguars are back to killing themselves with penalties, mistakes and general stupidity. Matt Ryan is getting beat up behind that offensive line and the Jaguars defense should be able to get a push but he does have more weapons at his disposal with Kyle Pitts and the return of Cordarrelle Patterson. The Falcons were dreadful against the Pats and Cowboys, two of the NFL’s best, but have done very well against the NFL’s bottom feeders with covers against the Jets, Giants and Dolphins. The under is screaming here.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.

TITANS at PATRIOTS

1 p.m., Patriots by 5 ½, 44 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: As impressive as the Patriots have been, we hesitate to lay all these points against what is still one of the AFC’s best teams. Throw out Tennessee’s loss to the Texans last week. That was a bad spot for them coming after so many impressive wins and an uncharacteristically bad game by Ryan Tannehill. Mike Vrabel has beaten his old boss in each of their two meetings, both times as an underdog, and he’ll have his team ready. The Patriots have scored only four offensive TDs in their last three wins while the Titans defense, led by an underrated front four, has held four of its last nine foes to 22 or fewer points. The Pats will win but it will be a squeaker.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Titans and the under.

SEAHAWKS at WASHINGTON

Monday, 8:15 p.m., Washington by 1, 46 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: At this moment, Taylor Heinicke is outplaying Russell Wilson, who hasn’t looked the same since he came back from his injured finger. He’s going to have to return to old form if the Seahawks are going to have a chance because Seattle can’t run the ball and its defense can’t be trusted. In spite of losing Chase Young, the Burgundy and Gold defense is coming of its two best performances of the year. Heinicke, meanwhile, is fortunate enough to have an elite if unsung WR in Terry McLaurin. After allowing Colt McCoy torch them for 328 yards without DeAndre Hopkins, the Seahawks secondary doesn’t figure to have an answer against the WFT combo.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Washington and the over.

CHARGERS at BRONCOS

4:05 p.m., Chargers by 2 ½, 47 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Justin Herbert, freed at last by the game plan, broke out against the Steelers and that should continue here against a defense that ranks 27th in third down stops. The Chargers give up a lot of yards on the ground and Denver has two good backs but Herbert’s success can force the Broncos to the air. The Broncos are coming off their bye but that hasn’t necessarily been a positive this year with those teams 7-13 ATS. Thy have had problems winning at home this season while the Chargers are 5-0 ATS within the division this season. With the number under a field goal, we’ll go with the better team.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the over.

PANTHERS at DOLPHINS

1 p.m., Panthers by 1, 42 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Cam Newton was the feel good story of the week but he was barely OK against the Washington Whatevers. He never even tried to throw the ball downfield (189 total yards) and, thus, was unable to move the team after falling behind. Miami’s defense has played better over the team’s three-game winning streak and should have not much trouble against a one-man team, even if that man is Christian McCaffrey. Tua Tagovailoa, meanwhile, is playing his best football. The Panthers have good defensive stats but a lot of that is built against weak offenses. With the Dolphins on a three-game win streak and playing closer to pre-season expectations, they are an attractive home underdog in what is certain to be a low-scoring game.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the under.

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<u>LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH</u>

VIKINGS at 49ERS

4:25 p.m., Niners by 3, 48 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Both teams have momentum as they try to put together playoff pushes after slow starts so it’s really a coin flip. The situation favors the Niners, who are getting healthier, against a team traveling to the West Coast off an emotional win over its biggest rival. But, if the Vikings are able to run against a defense that has had a hard time stopping it (4.5 ypc), Kirk Cousins will feast on play action as Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen find themselves singled up. The Vikings are 5-0 ATS as an underdog and the Niners are 0-4 ATS as a home favorite. We do look for plenty of points, making the over the strongest bet.

CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Vikings and the over.

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<u>BEST OF THE REST</u>

STEELERS at BENGALS

1 p.m., Bengals by 3 ½, 45

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the over.

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WEEK’S BEST BET: Washington. Hail to the Heinickes.

Last week: 7-8

Overall: 81-82-2

Over/under: 87-78

Best Bets: 7-4

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